UFC Fight Goes Distance — evaluated per card from finishing rate history, fighter styles, weight class finisher percentages, and live odds movement. No gut feel. Machine-scored, auto-verified.
The scanner runs before every UFC event. Signals emit when the model finds edge versus the DraftKings line. Every result auto-resolves after the card. Full history publishes here as the archive builds.
Yes/No — does the fight reach the final bell? Modelled from finishing rate history per fighter, weight class, and referee tendencies. The most edge-stable UFC market.
Win probability modelled from reach advantage, striking accuracy, takedown defense, and recent opponent quality. Only signals where the model edge exceeds vig by ≥4%.
Over/Under rounds — scored on finishing rate inside the distance range. Strongest edge on mismatches where the market over-prices the underdog's knockout threat.
Every signal is edge-classified before emission. SNIPER ≥7%. CORE ≥4%. LAB ≥2%. UFC edges are generally wider — more illiquid market vs. NFL or NBA.
/ufc on fight week/took <signal_id> to track it/ufc history after the cardMoneyline picks are binary outcomes with high swing. Fight Goes Distance has a smoother probability curve — finishing rates are consistent over large samples, making calibration more reliable.
The market prices FGD lines based on public perception of a fighter's finishing ability. The model finds systematic mispricing — especially on grapplers vs. strikers and championship rounds.
FGD resolves with an exact binary outcome — fight ended or didn't. Auto-resolution is clean, fast, and requires no interpretation. WIN/LOSS cards fire within seconds of the official result.
Over large sample sizes, finishing rate is one of the most persistent stats in combat sports. The model's edge on FGD compounds more consistently than any individual fighter moneyline.
Start on Telegram now. The scanner runs before every UFC event — you'll get the first signals the moment a card is posted.
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